Gohil & Gunby News

Quilter Cheviot - Market Commentary, March
Charles Stanley - 3 Economic Scenarios
Old Mutual Wealth - Market Update
Imperial College - Economic Impact of Coronavirus

Global equity markets had a good week, bolstered by a clutch of positive company earnings in the US and more favourable noises coming from the US / China trade talks. Roughly one-third of US companies have announced their third quarter numbers, with around 80% beating market forecasts. This has been a familiar pattern for many quarters now, with expectations running low going into the reporting season, then the majority of companies exceeding consensus numbers. What is more important about this quarter, however, is the recent talk of potential recession in the US and a fear that many companies would disappoint in the current announcement period. So far, so good, with most companies navigating a tougher economic backdrop reasonably well.

There is also greater optimism that the US and China can agree an early stage accommodation on trade, which will reduce the likelihood of further tariffs being imposed on goods moving between the two economic blocs. This would certainly remove some of the key concerns over global trade and further reduce the risks of a (largely) self-imposed recession. A further cut in interest rates from the US Federal Reserve later this week should add to the more positive tone.

Nov 2019

Source: https://www.quiltercheviot.com

The UK was meant to be leaving the EU this week but instead a 3-month extension has been granted and it looks like Boris Johnson will have to reluctantly accept. When the last extension was granted back in April, Donald Tusk implored the UK not to waste the time but unfortunately it seems to have done precisely that with Parliament still gridlocked. It looks likely that the next three months will be used to hold a general election although the Fixed Term Parliament Act is massively complicating the process. Each political party understandably wants to fight the election on their own terms so agreeing when to hold it may take some time but it seems that this is where we are headed. Whether it resolves Brexit is debatable but the polls currently look favourable for the Tories – the question will be whether Farage and his Brexit Party manage to split the Leave vote and open the way to a Remain coalition taking power. Currency markets continue to watch and wait.

Elsewhere, we are likely to see a 0.25% interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. Global economic data has continued to weaken and they remain under pressure, not least from Donald Trump, to support growth. Further cuts from here will depend on how the data evolves but there is a bit more optimism on the trade front at the moment as US/China negotiations continue. This week, the ISM, nonfarm payrolls and US Q3 GDP will be released. Christine Lagarde also takes over from Mario Draghi as ECB President.

Nov 2019

Source: https://www.quiltercheviot.com

Gohil & Gunby hosted its annual black tie charity ball on Saturday 9th February to celebrate Sanjay's 30th Business anniversary. The event commenced with a series of exhibitions by the Gohil & Gunby surgeons and was followed by entertainment, a Brexit panel discussion involving senior political commentators, and dinner in the main suite. The Gohil Foundation, a registered charity was also launched; the charity auction and raffle raising funds for some very worthy causes.

February 2019

Another week, another political crisis in the UK. Theresa May’s new soft Brexit strategy, agreed at Chequers on Friday, has been undermined already after David Davis resigned from the Cabinet. He also roundly criticised her negotiating strategy in his resignation letter, claiming it will not deliver on the mandate given by the result of the referendum.

What happens now is anyone’s guess but it seems likely that Theresa May will persist with her new strategy and will therefore face a leadership challenge from the Tory Brexiteers led by Jacob-Rees Mogg. If she faces them down, then a very soft, Norway-style Brexit is in the offing. If she loses, a hard Brexit or possibly a general election would seem likely. So far, markets have reacted quite calmly to the news but will be closely watching the reaction of other senior Cabinet ministers.

From an economic perspective, the situation is increasingly absurd – we are 8 months away from leaving the EU and the government cannot agree what it wants from Brexit. They are disagreeing not over minor details, but fundamental questions about the future direction of the country and the economic relationship with our biggest trading partner. While Mark Carney was talking up the UK economy last week and markets are still cautiously pricing in a rate hike in August, this could easily be overtaken by events.

Elsewhere, the economic news has generally been pretty good in most parts of the world although the increasingly hostile trade rhetoric is a cause for concern. This week, US inflation numbers will be released alongside UK monthly GDP numbers.

Investors should remember that the value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up. You may not recover what you invest. This commentary has been produced for information purposes only and isn’t intended to constitute financial advice; investments referred to may not be suitable for all recipients. Any mention of a specific security should not be interpreted as a solicitation to buy or sell a specific security.

July 2018

Source: https://www.quiltercheviot.com

Last week stock markets had their first wobble in a while, driven by the rise in global bond yields. In a sense, strong job numbers in the US and the ability of companies to pay their employees more should be a welcome feature. However, markets will fret that higher wages are a result of a too tight labour market and that businesses are having to pay up to attract more staff. The key is whether any of this feeds through to higher inflation, something that central banks are, of course, charged with containing. The fact that stock markets have already had a strong run in recent months just makes the chances of a minor correction even more likely. It is worth putting this into context however. The previous two interest rate tightening cycles in the US were in 1994 and 2004. During these periods the US economy was performing well but the central bank, the Federal Reserve, feared that inflation might return. There then ensued a period of fairly rapid interest rate rises which hit bond markets quite hard. Equity markets were not immune from this, although the falls in the S&P 500 were limited to less than 10% on both occasions. Thereafter, stocks continued to perform well reflecting the continued growth in the economy and in company profits. This is the type of adjustment that markets are most likely experiencing at the moment. Major setbacks in markets, so-called bear markets, are more normally associated with economic recessions. Given the current improvement seen in the global economy, these conditions do not seem to be upon us any time soon.

The synchronous global economic upturn continues apace. Last week saw another strong set of surveys across the world from manufacturers, even in the UK where economic activity is lagging other advanced economies on Brexit uncertainty. Bond markets have become increasingly nervous about the consequences of central banks tapering quantitative easing and increasing interest rates, even if the latter are very minor at this stage. At the end of last week the US labour market report confirmed unemployment at a 17-year low but more importantly – at least for the bond bears – a pick-up in wage growth to 2.9% year-on-year. The US 10-year Treasury rose 20bp over the week to 2.86% and there were similar rises in UK gilts and German Bunds. Advanced economy inflation has bottomed out and will increase gradually in 2018 but there is nothing at this stage to suggest the central banks will panic and tighten monetary conditions more abruptly. This week sees surveys from the services side of the global economy and these are also expected to be strong.

Fundamentals for equity markets remain strong, the global economy is growing and corporate profits are rising. In this context the fall we are seeing is mainly a valuation correction that is a buying opportunity for investors prepared to take a slightly longer term view on the prospects for quality companies. We are advising investors to keep their discipline focusing on advantaged companies trading on sensible valuations.

February 2018

Gohil & Gunby were pleased to host its latest black tie charity ball on Saturday 18th February 2017, at Athena in Leicester.

Everyone had a wonderful time and we raised a plenty of money for our chosen charities, more details coming soon.

Here are some comments from several guests:

Hi Sanjay & Bhavna
Thanks for inviting us to your event last night. We had great time and also connected with many professionals offering their services. Made new friends, enjoyed the delicious 😋 food and had fun. Thanks again.

Sanjay, thanks for a lovely entertaining evening last night, it went too fast, food was excellent.

Thank you so much for inviting us to your wonderful business dinner Sanjay. Your children as ever were a delight, the food delicious and we met some really interesting people. I hope you and Bav enjoyed it as much as we did.

Hi. We should thank you for the invite and the lovely time. As always an excellence in the organisation. Well done. Keep up the good work. Tc. Cu soon. Rgs to all.

Thank you very much for the great great evening last night! Thank you because it was a special party We really had so much fun with you and your friends and colleagues . A great family get together The food was fabulous and yummy, wines were outstanding.

February 2017

Gohil & Gunby launches IT services to UK individuals and businesses

generationNET Ltd provide web related IT services throughout the UK, with many years experience designing and developing websites.
Services available include;

• website development for small businesses
• eCommerce websites
• email & web hosting
• internet and digital marketing - direct emailing, email campaigns, e-newsletters
• search engine optimisation
• social media for business
• copywriting for business – websites, e-newsletters, news/press releases and blog posts
• Marketing - mentoring for business owners

Gohil & Gunby clients will be able to obtain discounted rates for these services.

October 2015

Gohil & Gunby hosts annual black tie charity ball celebrating its 27th Anniversary, at Athena in Leicester

Gohil & Gunby hosted its annual black tie charity ball on Saturday 25th April to celebrate its 27th anniversary. The event commenced with a series of exhibitions by the Gohil & Gunby surgeons and was followed by entertainment and dinner in the main suite. An enjoyable evening was had by all; the charity auction and raffle raising funds for some very worthy local causes.

April 2015